The Order of Obsolescence

Vinyl enthusiasts should be cheered by a commentary piece captioned “There’s Nothing So Old as the Recently New” that appeared last weekend in the Wall Street Journal. The writer, Matt Ridley, who has written on genetic and social evolution, turned his attention to technology. He argues that new technology will have the biggest negative effect on the most recent similar technology. I can’t give you a link to the piece, because the WSJ charges for its content, but here is a quote that will give you the gist of the argument:

“My point is that new technologies threaten young technologies more than the threaten ancient ones. Kite-surfing may kill wind-surfing, but it will not affect sailing. Email eclipsed fax more than it did letter writing. Social networking is overtaking telephoning, but not partying. In the era of Kinect, Space Invaders is dead, but poker is thriving. . . .

“It seems there is nothing so dated as the recently new.”

According to this theory, computer audio should displace optical discs (a 30 year old technology) more than records (a 100 year old technology).