@cleeds First off, the reference to short term forecasts was in jest. Second, the accuracy of short term forecasts depends on how you define 'short term' and how you define accurate. And while you might describe it as 'remarkably accurate' it is rather common, around here, for it to be utterly wrong. A prediction of 10% chance of rain and an actual occurrence of two hours of heavy rain might be considered 'accurate'....unless you are planning an outdoor wedding.The point being that you can be accurate most of the time and utterly inaccurate the rest. And these forecasts are based on computer models. The question is how much do you put at stake with computer models? For tomorrow or the next decade?
Longer term forecasting (6-12 months) has proven to be if-y at best. Hurricane season predictions have been a joke for the last 10 years.
When I was in the Air Force at a coastal base there was a large glass window looking over the flight line in the flight-ops area. Someone had used masking tape to frame a box on the window. Below it was written "Accu-View Weather window.....as a joke about how variable the forecasting accuracy was.
