That is how I arrived at my educated guess. And that is what an average means. I believe it was A.J. Van Den Hul who said that the life expectancy of his cartridges is 2000 hours, though I may be misquoting. These are expensive cartridges with line contact stylii that are babied by their owners, so really I don't think that, as an average life, I am that far off. The Shure is an unusual example, it tracks at 1 gram with a micro-ridge stylus. Name another cartridge that does. By the way, the suspension on my V15Vmr collapsed well before the stylus was shot. Personally, I would err on the side of excess conservatism, my Blue Notes and Riversides cannot be replaced, my cartridge always can. Remember, if I am wrong, I am buying new cartridges too early. If those who subscribe to the 2000+ hour lifespans are wrong, their record collections are compromised. Judge for yourself. Clearly, many who have weighed into this thread disagree with my thought process. To each his own.
Marty