The Economy.. will hi end audio mfgs lower prices?

{quote] ut of curiosity, can you tell me a stock that the stock market has treated kindly [/quote]

Gold has done well. I advised this a little over a year ago when I warned A'goners about the coming stock market rout and financial crisis. Everyone laughed at me at the time. My Puts (taken out in Dec '07 betting against the DJIA did pretty well too.

Pinkus, I hear ya. But HAR was mauled as if it were a financial. Down 80% YOY. If you plot it against something like BBY you can really see it. Net/net is that folks just aren't going to have the discretionary dollars they have had in the past...

Okay Shadorne, so you were right. Tell us what's next. Will Dow go down to 4500 as some now predicts. Boy, it is going to take another 10+ years to recover if that happens.

I also took my money out of stocks and invested in gold about 3 years ago, this based on advice of economists predicting this very debacle. It was so easy to see, any of these financial service wizards could have told you if they had the guts. Always keep in mind these guys have no incentive to tell you the truth, it would undermine their livelihood. Can you imagine all these wizards advising their clients to get out of stocks, the stock market would tank, the golden goose would be cooked. I bet a lot of these guys got their money out, left their clients in.

Okay Shadorne, so you were right. Tell us what's next. Will Dow go down to 4500 as some now predict

I began buying back in when the market dropped close to 50% (bargain hunting). Right now I will continue cost averaging down as the market falls further (can't predict bottom) - still roughly 50% cash down from about 70% cash before this mess. I am also betting against 30 year T bills - I suspect we have a bubble and that yields will start to rise again back to historic norms. I like Canadian banks, pharmas, utilities with high dividends and of course gold, if you have the stomach for it, oil & gas shares (tend to always be cyclical and should come back) are very down trodden. Right now I'd guess it is two years to go before the market comes out of this funk - so utillities with high dividend yields are attractive too. Real estate will take a lot longer to begin to recover perhaps as much as 7 to 10 years but it should also bottom out in the next year or so. FWIW I am fearful of inflation ( I know this runs counter to what we are observing right now but it just feels likely with all this money being printed and increasing debt. ).

Things to watch for: Eastern Europe is in trouble. Russia also cannot survive a long credit crunch and low oil prices so definitely more headwinds out there. China seems well armed (wealthy) to handle things. However, I take comfort that Libor spread is not as big as it was - the healing has begun - credit markets are thawing.

Wish I had a crystal ball...Great Depression is still a possibility but I hope Governments are sush a large part of the economy that I think we should (if managed prudently) avoid that.

This is where we are.